I hate to be a wet blanket anytime someone is excited, but I think it might be time for Oklahoma Democrats to pump the brakes on the recent victory laps.
I know it can be fun, but premature celebrations lead to losses later.
Democrats are an endangered species in Oklahoma. For generations, conservative Democrats ruled the roost at the State Capitol. The last generation has seen the state that voted for Republicans for President and Democrats almost everywhere else turn almost completely red.
Republicans enjoy a supermajority in both houses of the legislature and Mary Fallin is wrapping up her second term as Governor.
As more members of the GOP caucus leave the legislature due to personal problems or appointments, the Democrats have turned four red seats blue.
Considering the gang on the left side of the spectrum hasn't had much to celebrate lately, you can see why they would want to dust off some champagne bottles. In fact, the 24-year old leader of the party was even invited to tout the party's success on MSNBC with Rachel Maddow this week.
The storyline is that Oklahoma politics is upside down. Black is white, dogs and cats are living together - mass hysteria. Let's hit the pause button here and analyze a little data before we start another remodeling project at the Capitol to expand the Democratic office complex.
I have written columns that Republican sexual harassment, disorderly conduct and other embarrassing reasons for leaving office could give the Democrats hope in special elections. The fact that the Republicans unironically celebrated Statehood Day while they wrapped up an eighth week of an abject failure of a special session also has to help Democrats at the ballot box. Let's just say things aren't going well when an independent panel votes to cut all legislative pay 8.8 percent.
But these Oklahoma Democrats better figure out a new strategy for when these newly minted incumbents hit a General Election.
You can celebrate all of the 30-vote victories in the world when your candidate pulls in less than 2,250 votes - as in the Senate District 37 race held Tuesday. That narrow victory was better than a loss for the Democrats. However, the last general election for that seat was won with more than 17,000 votes for the winner and 32,000 total. When the General Election comes and turnout goes up to normal levels, about 7 out of every 10 of those new voters will be Republicans.
I'm no mathematician but I can help you with your calculus homework. Trust me, those numbers don't add up to continued success.
I know there will be a certain amount of push back against President Donald Trump and his policies and problems in office. There always are. Virginia's state legislature already turned blue.
The Oklahoma GOP is doing all it can to convince people to vote them out. But I just wouldn't get too excited about the Oklahoma Democratic Resurgence of 2018. Oklahoma didn't become one of the reddest states in America by making well-reasoned, logical decisions when it comes to choosing candidates.